Early Analysis of Indonesia’s National Budget Fiscal Year 2024
Context:
On 21st September 2023, The National Parliament convened to ratify the national budget for Fiscal year 2024 (Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara/APBN 2024).
Disclaimer:
This commentary is based on analysis of the draft of the 2024 national budget as published by Ministry of Finance (www.kemenkeu.go.id)
What are the Changes?
4 Key Takeaways:
- APBN 2024 will rely on efforts to increase government revenue as Ministry of Finance intends to control the amount of debt. A deeper look at the composition of government revenue portrays that income tax will bear the burden of increase in revenue (IDR 2,118T in 2023 to IDR 2,307T in 2024), as non-income revenue falls (IDR 515T in 2023 to IDR 473T in 2024)
- The decision to set the assumption of oil price in 2024 at US$ 80 per barrel deserves further analysis as global oil price continues to surge for the past 3 months amidst global uncertainty. This is also reflected in the lower allocation to subsidy, decreasing from IDR 298T in 2023 to IDR 282T in 2024, as the government mulls on changing scheme for oil subsidy
- Recent ratification of Law 17/2023 on Health was surrounded by controversy because the new law erase mandatory spending for health for both central and regional government. However for 2024 central government’s budget for health is still at 5.6%, similar to the percentage from last year
- Ministry of Public Works is the ministry with the highest budget in APBN 2024, followed by Ministry of Defense, The National Police, Ministry of Education, and Ministry of Health. Projects to support the New Capital are present in all three main programs (Connectivity, Water Resource Resilience, and Housing) of Ministry of Public Works, as the Government aims to finish the 1st phase of the New Capital next year