A little history lesson from Mandala
As the U.S. and Iran resumed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, Napoleon’s Continental System offers a useful reminder: coercion often works less cleanly than its designers expect.
In the early 1800s, Napoleon tried to weaken Britain by shutting it out of European trade. On paper, the strategy was simple: use France’s dominance over continental Europe to isolate Britain economically and force it into submission. In practice, the blockade proved difficult to enforce. Britain adapted through maritime trade and alternative markets, while smuggling networks helped keep British goods flowing into Europe. Over time, the costs of enforcement also created tensions within Napoleon’s own alliance system. This escalated to military action, which resulted in a costly strategic defeat.
The strategic lesson remains relevant today.
Sanctions, blockades, and military pressure can raise costs for an adversary. But as explained by University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape, unless they directly undermine the opponent’s core strategy and are paired with a realistic political endgame, they can produce evasion, escalation, and attrition instead of compliance.
Napoleon’s experience shows that pressure can shape incentives, but it rarely replaces diplomacy.